Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.123391 0.144907 0.169898 0.201275 0.239901 0.286266 0.346686
2025-09-14 0.094579 0.120349 0.153384 0.199539 0.263494 0.350715 0.481742
2025-09-21 0.072970 0.099148 0.135574 0.191367 0.277275 0.409156 0.636632
2025-09-28 0.052993 0.075738 0.109480 0.165125 0.258625 0.417501 0.727659
2025-10-05 0.044303 0.066737 0.102347 0.165956 0.283758 0.508788 1.018813
2025-10-12 0.038398 0.060798 0.098735 0.172055 0.321953 0.645948 1.512747
2025-10-19 0.033223 0.054996 0.094098 0.175392 0.358056 0.804388 2.225360
2025-10-26 0.029093 0.050175 0.090163 0.179303 0.399086 1.007818 3.347684
2025-11-02 0.024943 0.044503 0.083342 0.175234 0.421061 1.184329 4.704857
2025-11-09 0.021161 0.038831 0.075289 0.166039 0.426706 1.323908 6.248839
2025-11-16 0.018817 0.035598 0.071700 0.166776 0.462898 1.613697 9.470390
2025-11-23 0.016823 0.032728 0.068293 0.167065 0.499690 1.959564 14.562510
2025-11-30 0.015155 0.030354 0.065756 0.169839 0.551819 2.479022 24.752573
2025-12-07 0.013714 0.028231 0.063373 0.172527 0.608700 3.150493 44.092721
2025-12-14 0.012207 0.025693 0.059388 0.168948 0.639709 3.758368 73.362049
2025-12-21 0.010270 0.021839 0.051174 0.148625 0.582128 3.640863 84.777671
2025-12-28 0.009454 0.020570 0.049699 0.151294 0.640867 4.655468 171.748130
2026-01-04 0.008876 0.019789 0.049420 0.158427 0.733116 6.361223 441.217944
2026-01-11 0.008275 0.018851 0.048484 0.162870 0.818314 8.453702 1227.570584
2026-01-18 0.007745 0.018011 0.047664 0.167654 0.915301 11.386453 4369.968547
2026-01-25 0.007098 0.016758 0.045290 0.164872 0.959121 13.851817 14259.530743
2026-02-01 0.006421 0.015327 0.042067 0.157073 0.958410 15.552348 42096.413493
2026-02-08 0.006003 0.014558 0.040861 0.158384 1.038153 20.220024 460139.947115